Web-based doctor appointment-setting service ZocDoc has noticed an amazing increase of 6250% in Swine Flu-related appointments over flu-related appointments last year (the numbers have been normalized against time for the increased volume). There has been an almost 14x increase in swine flu activity since September. Because of the massively increased demand, ZocDoc recently added “Swine Flu Shot” as a reason for the visit that patients can specify when searching for a doctor.
“We have seen a dramatic increase in the number of flu-related appointments. Same-day flu appointments have increased by 15x since this time last year. Similarly, last year people made flu-related appointments an average of 4 days in advance. Now it is 48 hours on average, and trending downwards,” said Oliver Kharraz MD, ZocDoc’s Chief Medical Officer.
H1N1-Related Appointments Spike
ZocDoc’s data comes from the cities in which the company is active (New York and Washington, DC), where they have about 10% of the market. That’s not a lot, but enough to be statistically significant, and with influenza now widespread in 47 of 50 states in the US, ZocDoc’s data can potentially be taken as an analogue for nation-wide activity. Further, the Centers for Disease Control is reporting a similar increase across the US in doctor reports of influenza like illness.
One of the reasons swine flu has stayed top of mind in the collective conscious of the public is social media. In April we were seeing over 10,000 tweets per hour about swine flu, and while that number has dropped, we are still consistently seeing up to 800 tweets per hour, according to Trendrr graphs, during peak times (note: tweets for “H1N1″ are at approximately the same levels). Swine flu has clearly become a part of the regular daily conversation.
Certainly in part because of social media sites likes Twitter and Facebook, swine flu has continued to stay top of mind among the public, and that could be a factor in driving increased demand for H1N1 and seasonal flu vaccine shots.
The Need for Real-Time Health Data
The most difficult part of supporting the demand, said ZocDoc, has not been adding the technical infrastructure — that part was as trivial as adding an item to a couple of drop down menus in the patient and doctor user interfaces. The real challenge has been constantly staying in contact with doctors to make sure that those indicating that they have H1N1 or seasonal flu vaccines actually do have them in stock. ZocDoc told us they have been very proactive about keeping their information as reliable as possible.
“This all underscores the need for systems that introduce new efficiencies to our healthcare system,” said Kharraz. The experience dealing with the swine flu vaccine has been atypical for the company, which rarely has to deal with issues like scarcity and supply and demand that change the availability of a procedure daily. However, it does point to a possible need for real-time capabilities in online healthcare systems.
Real-time could be beneficial not only for patients, but also for doctors and researchers. When ZocDoc asked doctors when they expected to get more shipments of H1N1 vaccine, about half said not until early 2010. Real-time information about patients, doctors, and medications could help keep everyone more informed and keep supply ahead of demand. And that could have a profound impact on the practice medicine, especially during special cases such as a pandemic disease.
See also: HOW TO: Track Swine Flu Online and Google Helps You Find a Flu Shot
Reviews: Facebook, Twitter
Tags: flu shot, graph, swine flu, trends, zocdoc
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